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    Report No. 02 · By HL Real Estate Group · May 2026

    A Market of Contrasts and Conviction

    15 Premier U.S. Markets · May 2026

    15
    Markets Tracked
    1,557+
    Active $2M+ Listings (Sampled)
    $2.725M
    Palm Beach Median (+14.3% YoY)
    13 days
    San Francisco Pending Speed
    Source: Redfin City Pages + Zillow Research CSVs + Zillow Market OverviewPublished May 27, 2026
    01 · Executive Summary

    A Tale of
    Two Markets

    The May 2026 luxury market tells two stories simultaneously. San Francisco is moving at a sprint — homes pending in 13 days, 59% of sales closing above list, and a median sale price up 19% year-over-year — while Naples holds 743 active $2M+ listings with prices softening 9.6% annually, offering the deepest buyer inventory of any market we track.

    Palm Beach continues its ascent, with a median sale price of $2,725,000 — up 14.3% year-over-year — affirming that South Florida's most coveted island address remains in structural demand. Miami holds 571 active $2M+ listings, providing buyers genuine selection while still commanding a luxury sample median of $5,367,500.

    The Hamptons posts the highest luxury sample median in the report at $4,795,000 against just 34 active $2M+ listings, with 139 days to pending reflecting the deliberate pace of ultra-premium vacation buying rather than weakness. Aspen's structural scarcity persists: only 14 new listings, 15 sales, and a Zillow typical value of $3,535,613 (+5.9% YoY) prove this is a relationship-driven market, not an MLS-driven one.

    Among California markets, Santa Barbara stands out with 159 active luxury listings clearing in just 22 days to pending — brisk velocity despite a softening headline price. Los Angeles posts a +2.5% month-over-month price recovery and 33.2% of city sales closing above list, signaling renewed urgency in the $1M–$3M tier even as YoY remains negative.

    For buyers and sellers navigating this environment, the difference between opportunity and overpayment lies in granular, city-level intelligence. All May 2026 figures reflect Redfin city pages, Redfin $2M+ luxury filters, and Zillow Research CSVs as of month-end.

    02 · Luxury Markets

    Luxury Real Estate
    By Market

    Miami, FL

    Neutral
    $5.37M
    Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses)
    Broad market median +2.9% YoY → $674,000
    • Active $2M+ Listings571 · +0.7% MoM
    • Price Range$2.395M – $19.8M
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$900,422 · −1.7% YoY
    • City DOM107 days
    • Days to Pending59 days
    • Sale-to-List Ratio0.963
    • Metro Inventory6,228 for-sale
    Neutral — Deep Luxury Selection

    Miami's luxury tier remains deep with 571 active $2M+ listings — offering discerning buyers genuine selection, while a luxury sample median of $5,367,500 confirms elite demand holds firm at the top.

    Palm Beach, FL

    Neutral · Miami MSA
    $2.27M
    Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses)
    City median +14.3% YoY → $2,725,000
    • Active $2M+ Listings363
    • New Listings60 this period
    • ZHVI Typical Value$2,070,045 · −1.3% YoY
    • City DOM118 days
    • Days to Pending104 days
    • MoM Price Change+0.9%
    • Metro Zillow DataRolls into Miami MSA
    Strongest Price Growth in Report

    Palm Beach's 14.3% year-over-year price appreciation signals sustained demand on Florida's most coveted island — part of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA with broader South Florida tailwinds.

    Naples, FL

    Cool
    $3.35M
    Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses)
    Broad market median −9.6% YoY → $1,175,000
    • Active $2M+ Listings743 ← Most Inventory
    • MoM Change−3.3%
    • Price Range$2.0M – $10.75M
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$1,339,719
    • ZHVI Typical Value$551,996 · −5.8% YoY
    • City DOM81 days
    • Days to Pending64 days
    Buyer's Market — Deepest Luxury Supply

    Naples leads all tracked markets with 743 active luxury listings — the deepest buyer inventory in the dataset. A buyer's market with room to negotiate, particularly below $5M.

    Hamptons, NY

    Neutral · Non-Metro
    $4.795M
    Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses)
    Median sale price $3,450,000 (low-volume series)
    • Active $2M+ Listings34
    • MoM ChangeStable
    • Price Range$2.5M – $7.7M
    • ZHVI Typical Value$1,986,818 · −2.6% YoY
    • City DOM54 days
    • Days to Pending139 days
    • Homes Sold3 (ultra-low volume)
    Highest Luxury Median in Report

    The Hamptons operates on its own clock. 139 days to pending reflects deliberate, high-consideration purchasing — not weakness. When buyers commit, they commit at a premium.

    Aspen, CO

    Neutral · Non-Metro
    $3.37M
    Median Sale Price (City)
    City median +7.1% YoY → $3,372,500
    • For-Sale Inventory84 active listings
    • New Listings14 this period
    • Homes Sold15 (extreme scarcity)
    • ZHVI Typical Value$3,535,613 · +5.9% YoY
    • City DOM124 days
    • MoM Price Change−0.8%
    • Metro Zillow DataNot published
    Ultra-Luxury Scarcity Market

    Aspen's median home value of $3,535,613 (up 5.9% YoY) reflects structural scarcity. With only 14 new listings and 15 sales, this market moves on relationships, not listings.

    San Francisco, CA

    Very Hot
    $1.69M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median +19.0% YoY → $1,687,500
    • Days to Pending13 ← Fastest
    • % Sales Over List59% ← Highest
    • Sale-to-List Ratio1.029
    • ZHVI Typical Value$1,356,662 · +5.0% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$1,987,890 · −0.3% YoY
    • For-Sale Inventory880 units
    Extreme Seller's Market

    The fastest market in this report: 13-day average to pending, 59% of sales closing above list price. SF's luxury tier is experiencing a demand surge with multi-offer conditions standard.

    Santa Barbara, CA

    Hot
    $3.35M
    Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses)
    Broad market median −9.6% YoY → $2,017,500
    • Active $2M+ Listings159 · +0.6% MoM
    • Price Range$2.0M – $12.5M
    • Days to Pending22 days ← Fast
    • ZHVI Typical Value$1,834,095 · +1.5% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$2,280,283
    • % Sales Over List17.1%
    Fast-Moving Luxury Corridor

    Santa Barbara's 22-day pending average and 159 active luxury listings make it one of California's most active luxury corridors — brisk velocity despite a softening headline price.

    Los Angeles, CA

    Hot
    $1.03M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median −5.5% YoY → $1,025,000
    • MoM Price Change+2.5%
    • Days to Pending35 days
    • % Sales Over List33.2%
    • Sale-to-List Ratio0.989
    • ZHVI Typical Value$952,183 · −1.4% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$1,677,326 · +0.5% YoY
    • For-Sale Inventory7,033
    Recovering — Buyer Urgency Returning

    Despite the headline YoY softness, LA's +2.5% MoM price recovery and 33.2% above-list transaction rate signal renewed buyer urgency in the $1M–$3M tier.

    New York, NY

    Very Hot
    $0.87M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median +5.3% YoY → $868,750
    • Days to Pending79 days
    • % Sales Over List32.2%
    • Sale-to-List Ratio0.983
    • ZHVI Typical Value$812,861 · +4.5% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$1,207,029 · +4.6% YoY
    • For-Sale Inventory14,723
    • New Listings3,167
    Seller's Market — Rising Luxury Values

    Manhattan's luxury market is classified Very Hot with the metro luxury ZHVI up 4.6% YoY. With 14,723 units for sale citywide, selection is ample — but strong buyers move fast.

    Dallas, TX

    Hot
    $0.50M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median +14.7% YoY → $499,000
    • Days to Pending41 days
    • % Sales Over List12.2%
    • Sale-to-List Ratio0.973
    • ZHVI Typical Value$309,421 · −3.6% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$621,467 · −3.1% YoY
    • For-Sale Inventory4,689
    • Price Drop Rate31.6%
    Two-Speed: Hot Broad / Soft Luxury

    Dallas leads Texas in transaction velocity with a 41-day pending average and 14.7% median price growth YoY — a Hot market offering strong value entry for luxury buyers targeting the $2M–$5M tier.

    Houston, TX

    Warm
    $3.43M
    Sample Luxury Median List ($2M+ Houses)
    Broad market median −2.8% YoY → $345,000
    • Active $2M+ Listings233 · −0.9% MoM
    • Price Range$2.0M – $10.75M
    • Days to Pending46 days
    • ZHVI Typical Value$264,336 · −2.9% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$525,983
    • % Sales Over List12.0%
    Stable Upper-Tier · Energy & International Demand

    Houston's 233 active luxury listings and $3,425,000 sample median signal a healthy upper-tier market despite broad softness. Energy sector demand and international buyer interest keep the $2M+ tier moving.

    Atlanta, GA

    Warm
    $0.44M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median −3.3% YoY → $440,000
    • Days to Pending61 days
    • % Sales Over List14.8%
    • Sale-to-List Ratio0.979
    • ZHVI Typical Value$385,599 · −3.8% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$636,216 · −1.2% YoY
    • Price Drop Rate29.5%
    Softening — Corporate Relocation Tailwind

    Atlanta's market is softening modestly across both price and values, yet remains a Warm market with 14.8% above-list closings. The luxury tier benefits from continued corporate relocation demand.

    Las Vegas, NV

    Warm
    $0.45M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median −0.4% YoY → $448,000
    • Days to Pending44 days
    • % Sales Over List16.7%
    • Sale-to-List Ratio0.985
    • ZHVI Typical Value$426,583 · −2.7% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$628,202 · −1.8% YoY
    • For-Sale Inventory8,252
    Accessible Pricing · California-Exodus Demand

    Las Vegas offers one of the largest for-sale inventory pools tracked (8,252 units) at still-accessible price points. The luxury corridor in Henderson and Summerlin continues to attract California exodus buyers.

    Maui, HI

    Cool
    $1.02M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median +6.4% YoY → $1,021,000
    • For-Sale Inventory63 active listings
    • New Listings12 this period
    • Homes Sold15 (limited volume)
    • City DOM157 days ← Slowest
    • MoM Price Change+2.1%
    • ZHVI Typical Value$1,035,498 · −4.7% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$1,701,252
    Buyer's Market — Post-Wildfire Recalibration

    Maui's 157-day average and ZHVI softening reflect post-wildfire market recalibration. However, the metro luxury ZHVI of $1,701,252 and +6.4% YoY median growth confirm enduring island premium.

    Honolulu, HI

    Warm
    $0.61M
    Broad Market Median Sale Price
    Broad market median +7.1% YoY → $605,000
    • Days to Pending56 days
    • % Sales Over List12.1%
    • Sale-to-List Ratio0.973
    • ZHVI Typical Value$768,465 · +0.3% YoY
    • Metro Luxury ZHVI$1,394,227 · +1.1% YoY
    • For-Sale Inventory2,201
    Balanced · Stable Luxury Condo Demand

    Honolulu's metro luxury ZHVI of $1,394,227 (+1.1% YoY) and 56-day pending timeline reflect a stable Warm market. Luxury condos in Kakaako and Ala Moana remain the primary $2M+ driver.

    * Hamptons 693.1% YoY is a statistical artifact of 3 total March closings vs. low prior-year base — not a genuine appreciation signal. † Maui count reflects Kahului city limits only. Source: Redfin city pages and Zillow Research CSVs, March 2026.

    03 · Market Intelligence

    Five Signals Defining
    Luxury in May 2026

    1. 01

      San Francisco: The Fastest Market in the Report

      13 days to pending, 59% of sales closing above list, and a sale-to-list ratio of 1.029 confirm multi-offer conditions are standard. Broad-market median up 19.0% YoY to $1,687,500 — but the metro luxury ZHVI is technically down 0.3%, meaning the demand surge concentrates below the ultra-luxury band. The $3M–$5M tier in San Francisco is the most fiercely competitive asset class tracked.

    2. 02

      Palm Beach: Strongest Price Growth at the Top

      A median sale price of $2,725,000 — up 14.3% YoY and 0.9% MoM — makes Palm Beach the strongest price-growth market in the report and reaffirms the island's structural demand. Even with ZHVI down 1.3% on the broader area, the headline closing-price story is unambiguous: serious buyers remain willing to pay for trophy Palm Beach addresses.

    3. 03

      Naples: 743 Luxury Listings — The Deepest Buyer Pool

      Naples leads every market tracked with 743 active $2M+ listings, a Cool classification, broad-market median down 9.6% YoY, and ZHVI down 5.8% YoY. The 3.3% MoM listing decline suggests sellers are beginning to pull back rather than chase pricing down further. Buyers below $5M have meaningful negotiating leverage.

    4. 04

      Hamptons & Aspen: Non-Metro Scarcity Markets

      The Hamptons posts the highest luxury sample median in the report ($4,795,000) against just 34 active $2M+ listings and 3 May closings — volume so low that any YoY median print is more artifact than signal. Aspen's 14 new listings, 15 sales, and ZHVI up 5.9% YoY tell the same scarcity story: pricing is set by relationships and off-market access, not MLS activity.

    5. 05

      The California Spectrum: SF → Santa Barbara → LA

      Three California cities, three velocities. San Francisco at 13-day pending and Very Hot. Santa Barbara at 22-day pending with 159 active luxury listings and Hot classification. Los Angeles at 35-day pending, Hot, with a +2.5% MoM price recovery and 33.2% of sales over list — signaling that urgency is returning to the $1M–$3M tier even as YoY remains negative.

    04 · Frequently Asked Questions

    Luxury Market
    Questions Answered

    How many active luxury listings does Miami have in May 2026?+

    As of May 2026, Miami has 571 active luxury listings priced at $2 million or more — a 0.7% month-over-month increase. A sample of active listings shows a median list price of $5,367,500, ranging up to $19,800,000. The metro luxury Zillow Home Value Index stands at $900,422. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026. Analysis: HL Real Estate Network.

    What is the median home price in Palm Beach, Florida in May 2026?+

    The median sale price in Palm Beach, Florida is $2,725,000 in May 2026, up 14.3% year-over-year and 0.9% month-over-month. Zillow's typical home value for the area is $2,070,045. Homes are averaging 118 days on market. Palm Beach is part of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026. Analysis: HL Real Estate Network.

    Which U.S. luxury real estate market is moving fastest in May 2026?+

    San Francisco is the fastest luxury real estate market tracked in May 2026, with homes going pending in just 13 days on average. The city's median sale price reached $1,687,500 — up 19.0% year-over-year — and 59% of all sales are closing above list price, the highest rate of any market tracked. The sale-to-list ratio stands at 1.029, confirming multi-offer conditions. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026.

    Which luxury market has the most $2M+ homes for sale in May 2026?+

    Naples, Florida leads all tracked markets with 743 active luxury listings priced at $2 million or more as of May 2026 — though this represents a 3.3% month-over-month decline. A sample of active listings shows a median list price of $3,350,000, with the high end reaching $10,750,000. The market is classified as Cool, making it the most buyer-friendly luxury market in this report. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026.

    What is the Aspen, Colorado real estate market like in May 2026?+

    Aspen's median sale price is $3,372,500 in May 2026, up 7.1% year-over-year. Zillow's typical home value for Aspen is $3,535,613, up 5.9% year-over-year. With only 84 total homes for sale, 14 new listings, and 15 homes sold, this non-metro micro-market operates on extreme scarcity. Average days on market: 124. Pricing is determined by access and relationships, not MLS activity. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026.

    Is the Hamptons a buyer's or seller's market in May 2026?+

    The Hamptons (East Hampton, NY) is classified as a Neutral market in May 2026. With 34 active $2M+ luxury listings and a median sale price of $3,450,000, the market favors neither buyers nor sellers decisively. Homes average 139 days to pending, reflecting the deliberate pace of ultra-premium vacation home purchasing. The luxury listing sample shows a median list price of $4,795,000, ranging up to $7,700,000. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026.

    How does Santa Barbara compare to other California luxury markets in May 2026?+

    Santa Barbara stands out among California luxury markets in May 2026 with 159 active $2M+ listings going pending in just 22 days. The metro luxury ZHVI is $2,280,283 and the sample luxury median is $3,350,000 with listings reaching $12,500,000. The market is classified as Hot. Los Angeles is also Hot (35-day pending), while San Francisco is Very Hot at 13-day pending. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026.

    What are luxury real estate market conditions in Hawaii in May 2026?+

    Hawaii presents two distinct profiles in May 2026. Honolulu is a Warm market with a median sale price of $605,000 (up 7.1% YoY), a 56-day pending timeline, and a metro luxury ZHVI of $1,394,227. Maui is classified as Cool with a 157-day days-on-market average; its median sale price is $1,021,000 (up 6.4% YoY) and the metro luxury ZHVI is $1,701,252. Both markets reflect enduring island premium despite broader softness in home values. Source: Redfin & Zillow Research, May 2026.

    How does HL Real Estate Network compile this luxury market report?+

    This monthly report draws from three data blocks per market: general market statistics from Redfin city pages, Redfin's $2M+ luxury filtered listings for sample medians and active inventory, and Zillow Research's published CSVs for top-tier ZHVI, Heat Index, and metro pacing. All figures reflect the prior month's close — May 2026 data was finalized at month-end. We publish one consolidated report per month across 15 premier U.S. luxury markets.

    05 · How This Report Is Built

    The Authority on
    Luxury Residential

    Each monthly report draws from three data blocks per market: general market statistics from Redfin city pages, Redfin's $2M+ luxury filtered listings for sample medians and active inventory, and Zillow Research's published CSVs for top-tier ZHVI, Heat Index, and metro pacing.

    All figures reflect the prior month's close. Month-over-month comparisons populate from the following month's snapshot. We publish one consolidated report per month across 12 premier U.S. luxury markets.

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