15 Premier U.S. Markets · March 2026
Seth Semilof Haute Living Real Estate profile
This monthly report is part of Seth Semilof's HL Real Estate Network membership — read by 120,000 professionals weekly.
The Redfin and Zillow data compiled across 15 markets this month reinforces a structural theme: the luxury tier is not a monolith. In New York, the top-tier Zillow Home Value Index is up 4.6% year-over-year, the Heat Index reads 77 (Very Hot), and only 11.4% of listings have taken a price cut — reflecting genuine seller's market conditions. Meanwhile in Miami, 567 homes sit active at $2M+, price cuts touch 21.1% of listings, and the metro Heat Index registers 38 (Neutral), offering buyers unusual negotiating power at the top end of the market.
San Francisco tells perhaps the most remarkable story: a city median sale price up 19.9% year-over-year, 59% of city sales closing above list, a Zillow Heat Index of 105 — the highest in the dataset — and median days-to-pending of just 13 days. Yet luxury-tier ZHVI at the metro level is technically down 0.7%, reflecting that extraordinary demand is concentrated below the ultra-luxury band. At the other end of the spectrum, Naples joins Maui as a deep buyer's market, with a metro Heat Index of 29 (Cool), median sale price down 9.6% YoY, and 768 active $2M+ listings — the second-largest luxury inventory pool in the report.
Palm Beach and Santa Barbara round out the new additions: Palm Beach posts a city median up 14.3% YoY at $2.725M with a sample luxury median list of $14.995M (the second-highest in the dataset after Aspen), while Santa Barbara is one of the fastest-moving cities tracked at 22 days-to-pending and the only meaningful YoY ZHVI gainer among the new entrants (+1.5%).
This report covers all 15 markets with full Redfin general market data, Redfin $2M+ luxury segment data, and Zillow city plus metro CSV data. All figures reflect March 2026. Month-over-month comparisons will populate from the April 2026 snapshot.
567 active $2M+ listings and a 21.1% price-cut rate signal strong negotiating leverage for luxury buyers in March 2026.
Broad market surging (+14.7% YoY) while luxury top-tier ZHVI falls 3.1% — a split market favoring buyers in the $2M+ segment.
Lowest luxury median entry point in the dataset at $2.7M sample median. Metro inventory +14.5% YoY provides buyer options.
Aspen is not covered by Zillow's metro research CSV. Off-market transactions represent a significant share of $10M+ volume.
*693.1% YoY is a statistical artifact of only 3 March sales vs. low prior-year base — not a price appreciation signal. Seasonal peak is April–June.
Lowest price-cut share (11.4%) in the dataset, top-tier ZHVI up 4.6% YoY, supply tightening: classic seller's market conditions.
Largest $2M+ inventory in the dataset (1,714 listings). Wildfire-related displacement contributed to supply surge. Luxury buyers have more options than 2025.
Highest Heat Index (105) and fastest DOM (14 days) in the dataset. 59% of sales close above list. Only 88 active $2M+ listings — extreme scarcity.
Warm Heat Index masks real softness: ZHVI -3.8% city, 29.8% price-drop share. Luxury buyers in Atlanta have favorable negotiating position.
† Kahului city-limits count only. Broader Maui $2M+ inventory is thin and captured across neighboring ZIPs. Most buyer-favorable market in the dataset.
Honolulu's top-tier ZHVI is holding (+0.8% YoY) while neighboring Maui falls 6.5%. Supply tightening with new listings down 14.4% YoY.
Hot Heat Index (55) appears to lag actual conditions: 25.7% price cuts and +31% pacing slowdown signal a likely downgrade in April.
768 active $2M+ listings — the second-largest luxury pool in the dataset. Heat Index of 29 makes Naples one of only two Cool markets tracked, alongside Maui.
Sample luxury median list of $14.995M is the second-highest in the report after Aspen. City median up 14.3% YoY signals strength at the very top of the market.
Just 22 days-to-pending makes Santa Barbara one of the fastest-moving cities in the report, even as Redfin's city median fell 9.6% YoY. ZHVI is the only meaningful YoY gainer among new entrants (+1.5%).
* Hamptons 693.1% YoY is a statistical artifact of 3 total March closings vs. low prior-year base — not a genuine appreciation signal. † Maui count reflects Kahului city limits only. Source: Redfin city pages and Zillow Research CSVs, March 2026.
A Heat Index of 105, 14-day DOM, 59% of sales over list, and new listings down 7.5% YoY creates the tightest market in the dataset. For $2M+ luxury buyers: there are only 88 active listings. Move fast, expect over-ask, and treat access to off-market properties as essential. The extraordinary demand surge appears concentrated below the ultra-luxury band — the top-tier ZHVI is technically down 0.7% — making $3M–$5M San Francisco properties the most fiercely competitive asset class in this report.
New York's top-tier ZHVI is up 4.6% YoY; Miami's is down 2.3%. NYC's price-cut share is 11.4% — the lowest tracked; Miami's is 21.1%. NYC metro new listings fell 8.3% YoY; Miami metro inventory is down only 5.2% despite 567 active $2M+ listings. The data delivers a clear directional verdict: ultra-luxury buyers should be in Miami, ultra-luxury sellers should be in New York City.
The largest $2M+ inventory pool in the dataset — nearly triple Miami's — combined with a city median sale price down 5.6% YoY and metro inventory up 6.1% signals expanding buyer leverage in the luxury tier. Yet 33.2% of all city sales close above list, and the Heat Index is 67 (Hot). LA is running two markets simultaneously: a competitive sub-$2M segment and an increasingly buyer-friendly luxury tier, likely amplified by wildfire-related supply dynamics.
Top-tier ZHVI -6.5% YoY (steepest of any market), metro median sale price -9.6% YoY, 157-day city DOM (slowest), days-to-pending +29.6% (sharpest acceleration), and a Heat Index of 28 (Cool) — the only Cool market in the report. Supply is rising +8.5% YoY while new listings fell 16.0%, suggesting sellers are pulling back rather than adding fresh inventory. For buyers who have been waiting for Maui, the data suggests a rare pricing opportunity that may not persist into 2027.
Every market with metro Zillow data shows days-to-pending increasing year-over-year — from +7.5% (NYC) to +31.0% (Las Vegas). Buyers are taking longer everywhere. Markets rated Hot with rapid pacing slowdowns (Las Vegas: +31.0%, LA: +14.9%, Dallas: +13.4%) may see heat index downgrades in the coming months. The singular exception is San Francisco, where pacing remains extreme and days-to-pending of 13 days at the city level defies the national trend.
A new joint research report from Haute Residence and 5W draws on a decade of public ACRIS closing records to rank Manhattan's branded condominium towers by the size of the losses their original buyers have taken — from One57 and the Trump portfolio to 432 Park, with one limestone winner.
As of March 2026, Miami's luxury real estate market is buyer-favorable at the top tier. There are 567 active homes listed at $2 million or more, with a sample median list price of approximately $4.6 million (ranging from $2.1M to $29.5M). The Zillow top-tier home value index for the Miami metro is $895,296, down 2.3% year-over-year. The Zillow Market Heat Index is 38 (Neutral), median days on market is 107, and 21.1% of metro listings have taken a price cut. This combination indicates significant negotiating leverage for luxury buyers.
New York City's luxury market is a strong seller's market as of March 2026. The Zillow Heat Index is 77 (Very Hot), 20.2% of city sales closed above list price, and the top-tier Zillow Home Value Index is $1,197,823 — up 4.6% year-over-year. There are 482 active $2M+ listings, with a sample median list price of $3.5M (range to $50M). Metro new listings fell 8.3% year-over-year, tightening supply further. Price cuts affect only 11.4% of listings — the lowest of any market tracked.
San Francisco has the hottest overall market of any city in this report as of March 2026. The Zillow Heat Index is 105 (Very Hot), 59% of city sales closed above list price, and the median sale price rose 19.9% year-over-year to $1.7 million. Median days on market is just 14 days. For luxury buyers ($2M+), there are only 88 active listings with a sample median of $3.7M. Metro inventory is down 7.0% YoY and new listings fell 7.5%. The top-tier ZHVI is $1,975,623, down 0.7% YoY at metro level.
In Aspen, the median sale price was $3,400,000 in March 2026, up 7.1% year-over-year (Redfin). For $2M+ houses specifically, the sample median list price is approximately $17,950,000, with listings ranging from $2,450,000 to $300,000,000. There are 87 active $2M+ listings. The Zillow typical home value for Aspen is $3,535,613, up 5.9% year-over-year. Median days on market is 124 days. Aspen is not covered as a separate metro in Zillow Research CSV data.
Los Angeles presents a bifurcated luxury market as of March 2026. While the Zillow Heat Index is 67 (Hot) and 33.2% of city sales closed above list, the luxury tier ($2M+) shows buyer-friendly signals: there are 1,714 active $2M+ listings (the most in our dataset), the city median sale price fell 5.6% YoY, metro inventory is up 6.1%, and 18.8% of listings have taken price cuts. The top-tier ZHVI is $1,668,904, up just 0.3% YoY. Luxury buyers in LA have more options and more negotiating power than a year ago.
Maui is the softest luxury market of any city tracked as of March 2026. The Zillow Market Heat Index is 28 (Cool) — the only Cool-rated market in this report. The top-tier Zillow Home Value Index for the Kahului/Maui metro is $1,716,907, down 6.5% year-over-year — the steepest luxury value decline tracked. Metro median sale price fell 9.6% YoY, and days-to-pending increased 29.6% YoY to 127 days. Metro inventory is up 8.5% YoY. This data positions Maui as a buyer's market, with sellers under pricing pressure.
Across the 15 premier U.S. markets tracked by HL Real Estate Network as of March 2026, there are a total of 4,876 homes listed at $2 million or more. The market with the most luxury inventory is Los Angeles at 1,714 listings, followed by Naples (768), Miami (567), New York City (482), Dallas (375), Las Vegas (298), Atlanta (249), Houston (235), Santa Barbara (158), Honolulu (112), Palm Beach (93), San Francisco (88), Aspen (87), Maui (thin, Kahului city only), and the Hamptons (34).
As of March 2026, luxury markets with rising top-tier Zillow Home Value Index year-over-year are: New York City (+4.6%), Santa Barbara city ZHVI (+1.5%), Honolulu (+0.8%), and Los Angeles (+0.3%). Markets where luxury values are declining include: Maui (−6.5%), Naples (−5.1%), Dallas (−3.1%), Miami (−2.3%), Las Vegas (−1.6%), Palm Beach city ZHVI (−1.3%), Houston (−1.2%), Atlanta (−1.1%), and San Francisco (−0.7%). Aspen and the Hamptons do not have published metro-level Zillow ZHVI data; Palm Beach rolls up into the Miami MSA.
The Zillow Market Heat Index is a composite score measuring supply, demand, and transaction pacing in a given metro. Higher scores signal seller's markets with fast-moving, competitive conditions. Lower scores signal buyer's markets with slower absorption and negotiating room. March 2026 scores across this dataset: San Francisco 105 (Very Hot), New York 77 (Very Hot), Los Angeles 67 (Hot), Dallas 56 (Hot), Las Vegas 55 (Hot), Atlanta 50 (Warm), Honolulu 49 (Warm), Houston 49 (Warm), Miami 38 (Neutral), Naples 29 (Cool), Maui 28 (Cool). Aspen, the Hamptons, Palm Beach, and Santa Barbara are not covered at the metro level in the same Zillow series.
This monthly report draws from three data blocks per market: general market statistics from Redfin city pages, Redfin's $2M+ luxury filtered listings for sample medians and active inventory, and Zillow Research's published CSVs for top-tier ZHVI, Heat Index, and metro pacing. All figures reflect the prior month's close — March 2026 data was finalized April 2026. We publish one consolidated report per month across 15 premier U.S. luxury markets.
Each monthly report draws from three data blocks per market: general market statistics from Redfin city pages, Redfin's $2M+ luxury filtered listings for sample medians and active inventory, and Zillow Research's published CSVs for top-tier ZHVI, Heat Index, and metro pacing.
All figures reflect the prior month's close. Month-over-month comparisons populate from the following month's snapshot. We publish one consolidated report per month across 12 premier U.S. luxury markets.
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